Daily Observations 2026-04-15

The United States and Iran may resume negotiations in Pakistan this week. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that U.S.–Iran talks could restart in Pakistan within the next two days. Officials from the Gulf region, Pakistan, and Iran also indicated that negotiating delegations may return to Pakistan later this week, although the Iranian side noted that the exact timing has not yet been finalized. Talks held in Islamabad over the weekend failed to reach an agreement, but subsequent informal consultations through backchannels have made some progress in several key areas of disagreement.

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its global economic growth outlook. Under the baseline scenario, global real GDP growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026, down 0.2 percentage points from the January forecast. U.S. economic growth expectations have been adjusted to 2.3% for 2026 and 2.1% for 2027, while China’s growth forecast has been lowered to 4.4% for 2026 and remains at 4.0% for 2027. The IMF also warned that if the situation in Iran deteriorates further and oil prices remain above $100 per barrel through 2027, the global economy could face risks approaching recession. In addition, conflicts in the Middle East are exacerbating global financial stability risks through inflationary pressures, potentially tightening financing conditions and placing additional strain on non-bank financial institutions, private credit markets, and AI-related borrowers. Policymakers are advised to strengthen liquidity and financing frameworks in advance, while monetary policy should continue to prioritize price stability and closely monitor the transmission of actual inflation into inflation expectations.

U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% month-on-month in March, below market expectations. Nevertheless, given rising energy costs, economists expect the Federal Reserve is still unlikely to begin cutting interest rates soon, with the probability of rate cuts this year estimated at around one-third. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that if oil prices remain elevated for an extended period and slow the decline of inflation toward the 2% target, the Federal Reserve may have to wait until 2027 before considering any policy easing. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to hold a confirmation hearing for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh on April 21, leaving less than one month for legislative approval. Warsh’s latest financial disclosure shows assets exceeding $100 million; if confirmed, he would become the wealthiest Federal Reserve Chair in U.S. history.

Potential progress in the resumption of U.S.–Iran talks could help ease geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, thereby providing support to global risk assets and stabilizing market expectations by reducing the risk of disruptions to energy supply chains. The IMF’s downward revision of growth forecasts and warnings about financial stability risks further heighten market attention on inflation spillovers and the adequacy of liquidity buffers. Although the U.S. PPI data was relatively mild, combined with cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials regarding the policy path and the tight schedule surrounding Warsh’s confirmation hearing, monetary policy uncertainty remains elevated.

In terms of asset price transmission, easing expectations around U.S.–Iran negotiations may support upward momentum in risk assets such as the S&P 500, while reducing concerns over energy supply disruptions and exerting downward pressure on Brent and WTI crude oil. Financial stability risks and safe-haven demand may support gold prices and push U.S. Treasury prices higher, thereby lowering yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries. As for the U.S. Dollar Index, its safe-haven characteristics may provide some support, but improving risk sentiment could limit further upside. The market is currently in an environment where geopolitical easing expectations and macro policy uncertainty are intertwined. In the short term, attention should focus on the substantive progress of the Pakistan talks and statements emerging from the April 21 Fed Chair nomination hearing.

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SPX	6967.38
DXY	98.105
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US02Y	3.745%
UKOIL	95.35
USOIL	92.06
GOLD	4840.661

2026-04-14T09:00Z/2026-04-14T23:00Z